Friday, May 10, 2019

The silly absurdity of opinion polls





      Republicans are in a state of euphoria since a recent poll of President Trump's job approval puts him at 45%, according to Real Clear Politics.  This the highest of his presidency.  Woo hoo.  The same poll shows his DISAPPROVAL at 52%.  (For comparison, he bottomed out in December 2017, with 58% disapproval and 37% approval.)
      There are few things in political news sillier or more absurd than these idiotic public opinion polls.  So your phone rings (I presume the phone is still the primary data collection device) and some random voice on the other end asks if you think the President is doing a good job, or your opinion on some political issue.  Right off the bat, I'm curious how this individual was selected for polling, and how many people they are actually calling to assume that their collected data truly represents the entire nation and such.  
      And how come I never get called?
      Anyway, how does the polled individual respond?  Probably along the lines of:  "Hmm.  Well, I heard on the news that unemployment is down, and the Mueller report 'exonerated' him of Russian collusion, so yeah, Trump's doing a bang-up job, absolutely!"
      As I have often argued, NOTHING Trump has done since taking office has actually stimulated the economy or lowered unemployment - unless you want to include massive spending and deficits, which ARE economic stimuli according to leftist-liberal dogma, but I thought Trump was a conservative?  Then there is his trade wars, tariffs, sanctions, and other trade-related economic disruptions, especially along the Southern border.  And how many major acts of legislation or government agencies has he abolished?  And yet poll respondents give Trump all the credit.
     Looking back at history, the highest ever Presidential approval rating was a whopping 90% afforded to George W. Bush right after the 9/11 attacks.  Think about that a minute.  These attacks were an utter and complete failure of foreign policy and military defense, resulting in zillions of dollars of property destruction and thousands of lives lost.  Bush just happened to be the sitting POTUS at that moment, and for some befuddling reason, poll respondents said yep, he's doing a super job!
      On polls regarding issues and attitudes about government, the responses are just as goofy.  Consider the glaring inconsistencies between government faith and cynicism.  For over a decade, Pew Research Center has been asking respondents if they trust government.  Presently, only 17% of respondents said they trust it "always" or "most of the time", with all the rest saying: um, no.  
      Furthermore, 78% percent currently say they are "frustrated" or "angry" with the federal government. 
      However, if the pollster asks about specific issues, the pro-government crowd wins by wide margins.  The article cited above describes a recent poll that addressed these thirteen hot issues:
·         education
·         veterans' benefits
·         rebuilding highways & bridges
·         Medicare
·         environmental protection
·         health care
·         scientific research
·         Social Security
·         assistance to needy in the U.S.
·         anti-terrorism in the U.S. 
·         military
·         assistance to needy in the world
·         assistance to the unemployed
In every category, the results were quite lopsided in favor of MORE government spending.  Education, veterans' benefits, roads, Medicare, and Social Security topped the list, where percentages of respondents wanting less spending therein tallied in just the single digits.    
      Poll respondents are stupid morons - there is no tactful way to put it.  And pollsters know this and exploit it.  They can and do word the questions to illicit specific responses.  Let's pick an issue - say, price controls and so-called "price gouging".  Now consider these two questions, which basically ask the same thing, but with "customized" wording:
·         Should profit-mongering businesses be allowed to take advantage of extreme loss in crisis situations just to make piles of money?
·         Should the government punish businesses attempting to supply critical goods and services, all in a futile attempt to circumvent the laws of supply and demand?
      Public opinion polls are silly, absurd, and irrelevant.  Yet they are always featured prominently at the top of the daily news.  I dunno, maybe all this "fake news" accusation does have some merit after all.

 

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