Friday, May 15, 2020

What is the role of government in a pandemic?






       The only legitimate purpose of government is to protect life and property from force and fraud.  So if, for example, a violent and unstable person was loose on the streets, wielding a deadly weapon, threatening the lives of everyone, then government definitely has a duty to constrain said person. 

      What if the "weapon" was a deadly and highly contagious disease?  Then by extension, government would have a duty to constrain that person.  Right?

      Well, there are some … technicalities.  Unlike a firearm, it is not clear or obvious that an infected person is "brandishing" a deadly weapon.  In fact, the person him/herself may not even know they are infected.  And we don't even know yet how exactly Coronavirus is transmitted.  And we lack the knowledge - and adequate resources - to test effectively for it.

      What is government to do?

      To date, federal, state, and local governments in the United States government have instituted a policy that goes something like this:  Isolate.  Quarantine.  Stay home.  Don't travel.  Close the border.  Don't go to work - with the exception of "essential" businesses (more on that later).  And of course:  make sure the government tosses out lots and lots and lots of money (more on that later, also).

      How's that working out?  Well, let's talk economics for a moment.  Clearly, the Coronavirus is having a tremendous negative impact on every facet of society all over the world, and it is impossible to objectively measure the devastation.  But let's focus on just one statistic that has some degree of credibility:  unemployment.

      Using the U.S. government's own numbers, the current national unemployment rate is estimated at 15%.  (Many economists suspect that the actual amount is much higher, but for now, we'll use this number.)  Out of a population of 300 million, that means that 45 Million Americans are out of work.  That's an awful lot of people unable to buy groceries or pay the rent.

      To date, there are about 1.4 Million known cases of Coronavirus in the US.  That means that there are 32 unemployed Americans for every one case of COVID.  There are also, to date, about 86 thousand deaths attributed to COVID; that's 532 unemployed Americans for every one COVID death. 

      Clearly, the economic damage caused by government's "don't go to work" policy is out of proportion to the medical reality.  Granted, the pandemic is not over; the number of cases and deaths surely will grow.  But we got a long way to go before the number of COVID patients remotely balances the number of unemployed people.

      How do politicians justify this?  For those Liberals who love Big Government, the Coronavirus is the Ultimate Gift From Heaven.  What a wonderful opportunity to grab power over the lives and wealth of the citizenry!  To finally get rid of all those mean, nasty, employers, and make everyone dependent on government for their livelihoods, rather than for-profit businesses.  What a golden, once-in-a lifetime chance to finally raise federal spending out of those measly, stingy single-digit $Trillion-dollar budget figures and get it up into the $Tens of Trillions, or better yet, the $Hundreds of Trillions, where it belongs!  (Too bad that the so-called "Conservative" Republicans have also been talked into this scheme.)  "Saving the economy" means that you would have to watch your friends and loved ones all die, one by one, from this cruel disease - knowing every minute that you could be the next victim.  Oh and, if and when the virus does go into remission, the Liberals can claim the credit!

      Meanwhile, Trump and his Conservative allies are - at least partially - correct.  What good does it do, they say, to survive the virus only to find ourselves in poverty because the economy has been wrecked?  And of course, if the virus numbers do indeed go down before the November election, Trump will surely claim all the credit.  If not, then he will blame it all on the Democrats and the "fake" news media.  Politics never changes.

      Those are, essentially, the two sides of this debate.  So where am I going with this? 

      Here is the bottom line: 

      This is not a job for government.  The government does not care a flip about your health and wealth.  Government only wants to accumulate more power.  The two major political factions simply have different strategies to accomplish that goal.

      The proper way to figure out how best to allow the economy to prosper while simultaneously minimizing the virus spread is the same way humanity has effectively solved EVERY problem that has come its way since the dawn of time:  Let the people figure it out.  The free market is constantly searching for new, better, innovative ways to make us all healthier, wealthier, happier, and more comfortable, and the market will figure out optimal solutions to beat this virus. 

      The desire for a prosperous economy never went away - yet all the polls show that a majority of citizens are willing to make necessary sacrifices to beat the virus.  To find the "sweet spot", we need to treat people like adults.  Let them to figure out the best balance between the risk and the reward, and the best procedures and technology that allows society to work while keeping the virus at bay.   And of course get out of the way and let them find a medicine that will work.


     Getting politics out of the virus debate will end these silly arguments over what is an "essential" business or activity.  How in the world did politicians come to the conclusion that it's Ok to shop at Home Depot or the local liquor store, but we cannot get a haircut, or go to the beach, or visit a local park?  And it will put an end to these crazy protests and public demonstrations that clearly violate all "social distancing" guidelines.

      Personal responsibility is the "fuel" that will empower the market to beat the virus.  Those who refuse to accept responsibility for their actions and ignore the virus remediation guidelines will suffer their deserved fate.

      Now I know what you're thinking:  Personal responsibility has its limits.  We're talking about a virus here that cares not how responsible you may be!  All it takes is one stupid, irresponsible scofflaw who happens to be infected, and the entire community suffers for it.  The argument can be made that we're now back to square one, where government has a role to ENFORCE the guidelines.

      But that argument is fallacious for the reasons I have stated repeatedly:  at its heart, government does not care about you.  Politicians are not super-human gods who know best how we should run our lives.  Or spend the national wealth. 

      The simple presence of some law on the books won't stop the irresponsible scofflaws described above.  Murder and robbery, for example, have ALWAYS been crimes, yet the scofflaws in our society routinely ignore those laws.

      The best way to counteract irresponsible actions and urge those offenders to amend their dangerous habits is by fostering societal norms.  Yes, we have scofflaws that murder and rob, but fortunately, murderers and robbers are in the minority.  Why?  NOT because the government says so, but rather, because most of us were taught from an early age that these things are simply wrong.

      It's like a sociological variation of "herd immunity".  That is the term applied when a large enough proportion of the population is immune to a disease so that nearly everyone is relatively safe from it.   Similarly, when a large enough proportion of the population understands that some action is wrong, then nearly everyone is relatively safe.  You could call it "herd morality", or "herd awareness".   It explains, for example, why so many of us are willing to protect the environment from pollution and litter, even if doing so is inconvenient and costly.  And it could apply just as well to discouraging behavior that could spread a contagious disease.  But it requires teaching correct behavior, preferably at an early age.

      Figuring out how live in the age of Coronavirus will be a challenge.  Some formerly normal activities such as going to church, or a ball game or a concert, or riding public transportation, will be tough, as   "social distancing" there is rather impracticable.  But let the creative human imagination, the same force that created computers and all the amazing innovations that we take for granted, figure out a way - NOT politicians and bureaucrats.


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